Investmentbank: Inflationsüberraschung in den USA "top risk"!

• EUR/USD - WKN: 965275 - ISIN: EU0009652759 - Kurs: 1,3413 $ (FOREX)

Anbei die Prognose von GS, welche eher zur Vorsicht rät, aber auf das Tail-Risk einer anspringenden Inflation verweist:

„We now rank a “US inflation surprise” as our top risk to credit.

To be clear, our baseline view remains relatively sanguine about the probability of meaningful upside surprises in US inflation data (and the unexpectedly early withdrawal of monetary accommodation this could imply). But this risk scenario is one of the more painful we can envision for credit spreads, so it warrants close scrutiny, despite its low probability.

Surprisingly high inflation and the resulting removal of monetary accommodation would obviously provoke a painful risk-off event for rates and equities, but we think it could be even more painful for credit, for the following reasons:

1) First, we do not think markets for risk or rates are priced or well-positioned for such a surprise.

2) Second, a “monetary shock” driven by inflation rather than growth would reverse the usual negative correlation between rates and credit spreads, causing a “double whammy” of rising rates and wider spreads for corporate bond yields (our baseline scenario, driven mainly by better growth, envisions tight spreads amid a benign normalization of rates).

3) Third, such a sharp rise in bond yields might spark further selling by mutual fund investors, thus
generating additional spread widening on temporary market imbalances."

JPM schätzt die Lage übrigens ähnlich ein, sieht aber noch keinen unmittelbaren Handlungsbedarf:

„On credit, we have argued frequently that we find the rally spreads mature, as we are near past cycle lows, the asset class has grown faster than others, and corporates are starting to relever. The backup in spreads this month, despite better equity prices confirms to us this view. We are not UW credit, but have reduced our long to a minimal size. The real danger to credit probably comes from Fed tightening inducing a liquidity problem. But this risk is still a year away for us. Too early, and too expensive to short credit, in our mind.“