Hedgefunds verkaufen Aktien und kaufen ...

... Öl und Kupfer. Das ist das Ergebnis der Auswertungen von Merrill Lynch (BoA). Der regelmäßig erscheinende Hedgefundsmonitor zeigt bei den aktiv handelnden Professionals einen Kapitalflow aus Aktien in Rohstoffe. Das paßt ganz gut zu der Zyklenthese, wonach am Ende einer Marktrallye auch die Rohstoffe nochmals final durchstarten.

Auszüge aus dem Researchreport.

*Hedge Fund Monitor*
*Market Analysis*

*HFs sell equities, buy oil and copper*

*Large Specs very long gold, oil & 2Y Ts; short US$, 10Y Ts *

*_Note: Commitment of Traders data reflects positions as of last Tues'
close_*

*Equities*: Large specs sold the S&P 500 futures last week and continued
to aggressively decrease their longs in NDX futures. Reading have
moved to a near flat position in the latter, but further down side risk
remains. Additionally, they modestly added to their net shorts in the
Russell 2000. HFs are still a source of liquidity and their potential
buying power is now ~$9b, consisting of $4.5b in the SPX, $2b in the
NDX and $2.5b in the R2000 (more on pg 8).

*Metals:* Large specs modestly reduced their crowded long in gold last
week while covering their shorts in copper. They held steady their longs
in silver (pp 9-10).

*Energy:* HFs bought crude oil to a crowded long last week and increased
their crowded long in heating oil. They also bought gasoline and added
to their deep shorts in natural gas (pp 11-12).

*Forex:* HFs sold the Euro and held steady their net shorts in the US$.
Additionally, they continued to reduce their crowded long in the Yen (pg
13).

*Interest Rates*: HFs held steady their net short position in the 10-Yr
Ts last week while adding to their crowded longs in the 2-Yr Ts. They
marginally sold the 30-Yr Ts.

*M/N, L/S hedge fund market exposures decline modestly *
Our models indicate market exposure among Market Neutral (M/N) HFs
declined last week after sharply increasing previously. They continue to
have a net long bias, however. M/N HFs were underweight equities moving
into earnings season, but have aggressively bought equities recently to
become overweight (see pp 3-4). Long/Short (L/S) HFs market exposure
also dipped modestly last week. We estimated they are now net long
~30% slightly below the historical average (35%-40% net long).

*Macros cover the SPX; sell the NDX, small caps and US$*
Our models suggest Macro HFs covered their net short position in the S&P
500 last week and continued to sell the NDX to go further short. Macros
funds also continued to sell the US$ and buy commodities.
Additionally, they modestly covered to their shorts in the 10-Yr Ts and
moved to a large caps bias (relative to the small caps). Macro HFs held
steady their marginally net short positions in the Emerging markets (pp
6-7).

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