2012 könnten in der Eurozone furchtbare Dinge geschehen

Zulauf, ehemals Fondsmanager bei der UBS, jetzt selbstständiger schweizer Vermögensverwalter prophezeit im nächsten Jahr den Austritt von ein bis drei Ländern aus dem Euro. Dies werde fürchterliche Folgen haben ... Lesen Sie selbst ...

Kingsworld hat mal wieder ein Interview mit Felix Zulauf geführt ... Anbei ein erster Auszug ...

“I think the periphery goes into depression. When you look at a country like Greece, it’s now been in recession for three years. GDP is probably down 15% from the top. The stock market is down 90%, which is the equivalent of 1929 to 1932 in the US. This is depression-like.”

“More and more economies will fall into that situation. That creates the problem of people revolting. Right now we have new governments not elected by the voters, the citizens of those countries, but implanted as technocrats by the EU center, by Brussels. So they will be very disliked and I think you will see some revolutions starting or intensifying next year.

Then I expect next year one country, probably three, will exit the euro. That will make 2012 very interesting because there are no rules on how to exit the euro. A country exiting the euro means the next day, when they exit, their banking system is bust. That means the banking system has to be immediately nationalized in a new currency.

They introduce a new currency, they nationalize the banking system, and then, of course, the government is also bust. Then the government will default. That’s what you have to expect next year. I think Greece will do so and Portugal and Ireland are candidates also.

Then it will depend on how that crisis is managed as to whether the crisis can be turned around and terminated or whether it will intensify and drag on into 2013 and force Italy and Spain out of the Eurozone as well. (This will have the effect of) creating turmoil in the financial markets and weakening the European and most likely the world economy (even) further...."

John Taylor vom weltgrößten Devisen Hedgefunds meldet sich mal wieder äußerst negativ zur Eurozone, dem Euro und zur EZB.

Taylor nennt 3 kritische Punkte, die es in sich haben ... Auch wenn der Mann einem echt unsympathisch ist, wo er recht hat, hat er recht ...

Even the name European Central Bank should catch in our throats as there is no Europe. There is no
country, no Treasury standing behind this bank. The only thing that unites its seventeen member
countries is their common currency and that is a fabrication totally dependent upon the bank itself.

As a result of this the ECB is running three major risks while the Fed is running about 1.2 of them. The first and least problematic of those risks is the same one that the Fed has: the duration risk in owning long- term European government securities. Before they mature, their market price could drop because of an increase in interest rates.

The second risk is the credit risk, and for the ECB this is a gigantic one. There is no guarantee that the Greek government is going to be able to repay its Bonds when they mature because they cannot print euros. Arguing that these Bonds posses no risk of default is clearly ridiculous, but the ECB loaded with them, has to do that. The third risk is the currency risk. Certainly, no good Eurozone-phile would ever admit this risk as the national currencies of Greece, Italy, Spain and all the others vanished forever, but they are not necessarily gone. Even Angela Merkel said that Greece could be expelled, and that outcome seems more than a distant probability. So, the ECB within its SPM mandate has loaded its balance sheet with risky paper that might not pay off and might be dominated in as yet unnamed and unknown currencies.

If the plans being hatched by the Merkozy duopoly come to pass, the ECB will have a portfolio of junk sovereign debt that will overwhelm its capital when the first country leaves the euro. At that point the Eurozone members will be dunned to add to its capital and the amount involved will be far more than the number of the loans that have gone bad. The ECB is a building built on sand – quicksand – and pushing this institution into a critical role is a major policy blunder that could eventually destroy the euro.

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