Schroders - Marktausblick (englisch)

Most world equity markets have been recovering recently. Investors have looked beyond mixed economic data to focus on corporate results, which have generally pleased investors, though expectations were not high. Sectors such as technology have been among the leaders as investors sell defensive companies to take on more risk. We believe the more positive mood could develop into a broader end-of-year rally, but it would be too early to call this a sustainable turnaround. Economic growth is weak and is unlikely to improve in the short term. Nevertheless, there are longer-term positives for investors looking beyond the problems in the US. In Europe - an investment region we increasingly favour - we find valuations attractive and the long-term growth story compelling.

Neutral global equities: We have marginally increased our exposure. Company results have been improving and analysts seem too pessimistic in their growth forecasts. The recent recovery in stockmarkets could develop into a broader year-end rally. However the economic environment is still weak, and it is too soon to call this a sustained turnaround. In many cases, valuations - particularly in the US - are above long-term averages, and though we are more positive, we are not willing to move overweight just yet.

Underweight global bonds: We have been reducing our global bond holdings. In early October, government bond prices were reaching new highs and began to look vulnerable, particularly with investors increasingly prepared to take on more risk. We have, however, selectively increased the proportion of corporate bonds we hold within our overall global bond exposure, as these assets are responding positively to improving investor confidence.

Overweight cash: We continue to maintain an overweight cash position in this mixed economic environment.

Within equity markets:

Underweight US: US stockmarkets have performed more positively recently, but we remain underweight. The improving sentiment follows well-received corporate results. However, underlying economic growth remains weak and profit gains have been driven by cutting costs - this cannot be repeated indefinitely. With consumer debt at historical highs, it will be difficult for many companies to generate the sales needed to keep profit momentum going. In any event, valuations in the US are still too high.

Overweight Europe (ex UK): After falls during much of the year, European equities recovered recently. We believe they offer good value and we are increasingly positive. Forced selling by insurance companies seems to have abated, and there are signs that merger and acquisition activity is picking up again. European markets should perform particularly well during any rally that develops during the quarter, and we have increased our exposure to gain from this.

Neutral Japan: Japan's stockmarkets have been more subdued than other world markets. While there have been proposals to clear-up the banks' bad debts, some investors doubt the resolve of politicians to tackle the issues at all. This longer-term negative is, however, balanced by the fact that there is value in the Japanese stockmarket and prices do already reflect the foreseeable risks.

Overweight emerging markets: Unsurprisingly, given rising investor confidence, emerging markets have been performing strongly. Though the global economic outlook is weak, emerging market companies' average returns on equity have improved significantly and are now higher than in western markets. Increased focus on shareholder value and attractive valuations should ensure there are many opportunities for long-term gains.

Overweight Pacific (ex Japan): Though economic recovery is expected to be weak, we believe share prices in the region do reflect investor concerns and valuations are generally fair to good. Although countries such as Australia tend to be defensive, elsewhere we have been able to find opportunities that we feel will deliver good returns.

Quelle: Schroders