Nobelpreisträgers Prof. Robert Fogel „Währungskriegs“

Der Finanzkrise folgt möglicherweise ein Währungschaos. Um die heimische Industrie zu stützen, nehmen die Regierungen mehr und mehr auch die Schwächung der eigenen Währung in Kauf. Experten warnen vor einem Abwertungswettlauf an den Devisenmärkten. Die Folgen eines derartigen „Währungskriegs“ könnten verheerend sein und uns in die große Depression der dreißiger Jahre zurückwerfen…

Lesen Sie einen Kommentar des Nobelpreisträgers Prof. Robert Fogel von der University of Chicago Booth School of Business: It’s a mark of the times—eerily like the early 1930s—when virtually every country wants a higher value for the currencies of its trading partners, which reflects that unemployment rates are high in the United States, Europe, and Japan, especially in the production of exports and import competing goods. China continues to grow its exports, and its trade surplus is about as large as the combined surpluses of Japan and the other Asian countries with surpluses. China—one of the most protectionist countries in the world ignores the complaints of the Americans that together its trade and currency policies are “beggaring” its trading partners. Some of these other Asians complain about the Chinese commitment to a low value of the yuan, even though the ratio of their current account surpluses to their GDPs are several times higher than the same ratio for China. The Europeans complain about the recent strength of the Euro, although even now the U.S dollar price of the Euro is lower than before the debt crisis in Greece and the other Mediterranean countries. The Eurozone has a small trade surplus, the humongous surpluses Germany and the Netherlands are nearly offset by the large trade deficits of France, Greece, and Spain. As Greece and other Mediterranean countries reduce their large fiscal deficits, their trade deficits will decline. Moreover Chinese purchases of the Euro as part of their efforts to diversify the currency composition of their assets will put more upward pressure on the Euro. Leaders in Frankfurt and Paris will realize that the efforts to capture the glory and prestige of being a leading reserve currency country has costs to the manufacturing sector Americans are increasingly angry of the efforts of countries in Asia and Europe to increase their trade surpluses, since their success in achieving this goal will lead to a larger U.S. trade deficit. Professor Robert W. Fogel, University of Chicago Booth School of Business

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