Ken Fisher hat sich in Micron eingekauft

Eine interessante "Entdeckung" haben wir machen können. Ken Fisher, ein bekannter Vermögensverwalter aus den USA, hat sich während des dritten Quartals neu in Micron Technology (MU) eingekauft. Anbei die Top Liste der institutionellen Shareholder von MU während des dritten Quartal dieses Jahres. Mit über 5 Mio. Aktien hat sich Ken auf einen Schlag auf Platz 14 der institutionellen Shareholder katapultiert.

Vorsicht beim "Nachtraden" basierend auf den zeitlich verzögert veröffentlichten Insti Listen. Diese geben nützliche Hintergrundinformationen, sollten jedoch nicht überbewertet werden. Viele Aktien, in die sich laut Insti Q3 Liste eine ganze Reihe großer Marktteilnehmer eingekauft haben, werden seit einigen Wochen durch den Fleischwolf gedreht. Aus diesen Listen ist nämlich nicht ersichtlich auf welchen Anlagehorizont die Positionen eingegangen wurden. Wenn sich beispielsweise Fidelity auf 10Jahresbasis einkauft und Sie sind mittelfristig oder sogar kurzfristig ausgerichtet, dann schadet es Ihnen mehr als zu nutzen, wenn Sie aufgrund der Insti Liste sich kurzfristig einklinken.

Man kann sich allerdings den durchschnittlichen Einkaufspreis ausrechnen. In den Folgereports kann nachgeprüft werden, ob weiter hinzugekauft wurde oder ob wieder abverkauft wurde. Da auch bei Verkäufen der durchschnittliche Verkaufspreis ermittelt werden kann, ist es so möglich, ungefähr die Gewinne und Verluste pro Positionsveränderung auszurechnen.

Fisher verwaltet einige Milliarden US $ an Kundengeldern. Ähnlich wie Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley ist Ken Fisher in diesem Jahr vom bekannten Bären zum ebenso bekannten Bullen mutiert.

Anbei einer seiner aktuellen Kommentare aus dem Forbes Magazin.

Ken Fisher : The next bursting bubble? Bonds

Kommentar von Ken Fisher (Ken Fisher Investments) vom 09.12.02

Not Bonds, Books

Kenneth L. Fisher

If a 20-year stock run-up could lead to the last 3 years, why not ditto with bonds now?

The next bursting bubble? Bonds. Folks have flooded into the Treasury market. They are driven by panic in the stock market, mesmerized by a 21-year bull market in fixed income and misled by the mythology that bonds are safe. They aren't. You can get killed by them.

Until people realize that, bond managers will remain the new heroes. Pimco's Bill Gross, arguably the best bond manager of the last three decades, runs what just became the world's biggest mutual fund. For some reason that suddenly qualifies him as a stock market sage. While claiming that anyone who is bullish on equities is self-serving, Gross himself self-servingly suggests that stocks will be disappointing for years while bonds will be okay (although, to his credit, he says that Treasurys are fairly priced and their big bull market mostly over).

The bond bull market of 1981-2002 was quite extraordinary. Long-term Treasury rates collapsed from 15.8% to 4%. You won't see that again, ever. On the contrary: Interest rates are destined to climb some of the way back up. And why shouldn't bonds get a bear market? If a 20-year stock run-up could lead to the last 3 years, why not ditto with bonds now? How much lower can yields fall while globally central banks print money at 5% to 10% annual rates and economies grow at 2% rates?

Sooner or later bondholders will demand an aftertax coupon exceeding inflation. If the real aftertax return is to be, say, 2%, and if inflation is 4%, and if your tax rate is 25% (it's probably higher), you need an 8% coupon on your long Treasury. That's just about double where long rates are now.

Treasurys are safe? Do the math. If over the next year the yield on long Treasurys climbs four percentage points from where it is now, your total return on such paper will be -40%. That is nearly as much as stocks fell since March 2000. I can't promise you that Treasury yields will double, but I can say the bond market won't be pretty over the next few years. As economies finally pick up some steam in 2003 and 2004, inflation fears will renew and the bubble-bursting will begin. Once the prick starts it will be steady and fast until all the hot air arguing for bond safety is fully dissipated and turned into cold fear.

Do not forget: Inflation is a creature of politics, and politicians never lose their lust to spend money. Yours. You know the old folk etymology of "politics" (Greek scholars, please don't write in with corrections)--that the word comes from "poli," meaning many, and "tics," meaning small blood-sucking creatures. The blood is money, printed by central bank chairmen. Ours, revered as he is, is getting old and has to work hard to get the reappointment he covets. President Bush can stall through summer 2004 his decision to reappoint Greenspan or not. That hinges, despite what you may think, on whether Greenspan motivates our Fed to be adequately accommodating to give Bush a suitable economic backdrop for reelection. I predict that Greenspan will so motivate the Fed.

You will find few five-year periods in Treasury history without a severe uptick in rates somewhere. Yet usually those bond bear markets saw stocks fare pretty well, particularly when they were preceded by a stock bear market. We just had a doozy of a stock correction. What to do? One approach is to take some of your money out of bonds and find stocks with better overall yields. By "yield" here I mean the earnings yield, or earnings divided by price.

Some good stocks with good earnings yields:integrated oil producer Amerada Hess (nyse: AHC - news - people ) (53, www.hess.com), with a 2% dividend yield and a 12% earnings/price ratio; the world's leading inorganic chemical firm, Dow Chemical (nyse: DOW - news - people ) (27, www.dow.com), with a 5% dividend and a next-year E/P of 7%; ketchup and soup king H.J. Heinz (nyse: HNZ - news - people ) (33, www.heinz.com), with a 5% dividend and an E/P of 8%; auto parts wholesaler Genuine Parts (nyse: GPC - news - people ) (30, www.genpt.com), with a 3.8% dividend and a 7% E/P; and America's largest department store chain, May Department Stores (nyse: MAY - news - people ) (22, www.maycompany.com), with a 1% dividend and a 10% E/P.

Christmas approaches. A great gift for investor friends is Robert Menschel's new Markets, Mobs & Mayhem (John Wiley & Sons, $25). While not written for this purpose, its detailing of how panics of all forms end can help you see why stocks will do fine in the next few years.

The best older book I read this year is Thomas Gilovich's How We Know What Isn't So (Free Press, 1991, $17). In simple English he exposes the cognitive traps that cause misperceptions of reality, which are rampant in markets.