UBS Technical Analysis - Zieht der Januareffekt diesmal nicht ?

Auszug aus dem aktuellen "UBS Technical Analysis" Report.

US Strategy: The January barometer is one of the most incredible phenomena we have in the financials markets.

The theory says: as January goes, so goes the year. Since 1950, this has only failed to prove true eleven times, which represents an 81% accuracy ratio of this indicator.

With an SPX performance of -6.3%, January 2009 was the 4th worst start to the year since 1950, so the indication for 2009 seems to again be quite negative.

However, if we review the monthly indicator constellation of the ten worst Januaries, in most cases the market started the year on a quite different position, but not on such an oversold long-term position as this year.

We see a good chance that this year’s January barometer could be misleading, so that the year 2009 won’t turn out as bearish as the negative January suggests.