Robinhood Buys MIAXdx to Bring Prediction Markets In-House

Big swing: On Tuesday, Robinhood announced the acquisition of the U.S. derivatives exchange MIAXdx. The move deepens the neobroker’s push into prediction markets by providing it with the necessary CFTC licenses to originate and clear event contracts on its own platform, eliminating dependence on third-party infrastructure.

Why it matters: Prediction markets have become one of the hottest verticals in crypto and the broader tech landscape. The leading U.S. platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have together raised more than $3 billion this year alone, and their combined trading volumes hit a record $7.4 billion last month. Roughly $2.5 billion, or about 33% of that activity, comes from Robinhood’s own event contracts, which currently run on Kalshi’s infrastructure.

• “Prediction markets are our fastest-growing business line in history, and they’re already tracking towards a $300 million run rate based on October volumes,” said Robinhood’s CFO Jason Warnick in the firm’s most recent earnings call.

Limits: Still, some analysts have also been beating the drum that relying on an external infrastructure provider like Kalshi creates unit-economic constraints.

• “I’ve been playing with Robinhood’s event contracts and it’s clear that the underlying Kalshi fees of $0.01 per share make any market with a less than 30% probability untradable,” noted Omar Kanji, Partner at crypto VC firm Dragonfly.

Vertical integration: By acquiring MIAXdx and its CFTC-regulated entities, Robinhood can bring the infrastructure in-house, remove Kalshi’s fee layer, and design its own economics for event contracts. The company expects this will “deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers,” according to JB Mackenzie, VP and General Manager of Futures and International.

Market response: Investors reacted positively. Robinhood’s stock has gained 14% since the deal was announced, effectively adding the equivalent of Kalshi’s $11 billion valuation to its own market capitalization.

Kalshi’s next move: Losing Robinhood, which accounted for 57% of Kalshi’s trading volume last month, is a major setback for the startup. But a new partner is emerging: according to The Information, Coinbase is preparing to launch its own prediction market product powered by Kalshi at its “Coinbase System Update” event on December 17.

What’s next: Robinhood’s new trading venue is slated to begin operations in 2026, and will launch with day-one liquidity support from Susquehanna, the global market maker that is already a major liquidity provider on Kalshi.

Claude Donzé is Principal and Consumer Lead at Greenfield Capital, a leading European crypto VC firm with investments in companies such as Near, 1Inch and Arweave.

Prediction markets are entering a new stage of institutionalization as major players like Robinhood step in. What began as a niche experiment is becoming a distinct asset class with its own market structure. The collaboration of global market makers like Susquehanna and crypto-native players such as Galaxy shows that liquidity is professionalizing and the same actors who shape traditional markets are now active here.

But even with Robinhood’s strength, the market will not converge on a single winner. The category is large enough for multiple players, and the differentiation paths are clear. One is the social layer, with prediction markets already behaving like social products through comment activity, distinct communities and conversations on platforms like X. Another is the information layer, with Polymarket positioning itself as a real-time news and truth source. And over time, more layers are likely to emerge as the market expands.