Robinhood Acquires U.S. Derivatives Exchange, Doubles Down on Prediction Markets

Bitcoin has been sitting comfortably among the world’s top ten assets for over a year. Soon, it also gets a seat at the big boys’ table in the options market.

This week, Nasdaq formally asked the SEC to lift the cap on IBIT options from 250,000 contracts to one million, putting BlackRock’s ETF on equal footing with mega-cap stocks and indices like AAPL, NVDA, and SPY. That lets institutions size their Bitcoin exposure without bumping into artificial ceilings or detouring through MSTR.

It must feel good to be BlackRock. IBIT has already become Wall Street’s default Bitcoin exposure, something JPMorgan also made clear by filing a 1.5x leveraged note linked to the ETF this week.

Bottom line: the desks are only just warming up.

Today, we’ll also talk about:

• Robinhood doubles down on prediction markets
• Centrifuge expands into corporate finance with equity tokenization
• Spiko launches GBP-backed tokenized MMF

HIGH SIGNAL NEWS

• Polymarket receives CFTC approval. With the Amended Order of Designation, users are now allowed to trade Polymarket contracts through registered U.S. brokers and financial institutions. 🔮
• Monad goes live. On Monday, the mainnet of the highly anticipated Layer 1 began producing blocks. Since then, MON, the network’s native token, has appreciated by 60%, now sitting at a $4 billion fully diluted valuation. 📈
• Paxos acquires custody and wallet firm Fordefi in $100+ million deal. Founded in 2021, Fordefi has about 40 employees and serves around 300 clients. Its infrastructure is expected to give Paxos customers secure, streamlined access to DeFi. 💰️

PREDICTION MARKETS

Robinhood Acquires U.S. Derivatives Exchange, Doubles Down on Prediction Markets

Big swing: On Tuesday, Robinhood announced the acquisition of the U.S. derivatives exchange MIAXdx. The move deepens the neobroker’s push into prediction markets by providing it with the necessary CFTC licenses to originate and clear event contracts on its own platform, eliminating dependence on third-party infrastructure.

Why it matters: Prediction markets have become one of the hottest verticals in crypto and the broader tech landscape. The leading U.S. platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have together raised more than $3 billion this year alone, and their combined trading volumes hit a record $7.4 billion last month. Roughly $2.5 billion, or about 33% of that activity, comes from Robinhood’s own event contracts, which currently run on Kalshi’s infrastructure.

• “Prediction markets are our fastest-growing business line in history, and they’re already tracking towards a $300 million run rate based on October volumes,” said Robinhood’s CFO Jason Warnick in the firm’s most recent earnings call.

Limits: Still, some analysts have also been beating the drum that relying on an external infrastructure provider like Kalshi creates unit-economic constraints.

• “I’ve been playing with Robinhood’s event contracts and it’s clear that the underlying Kalshi fees of $0.01 per share make any market with a less than 30% probability untradable,” noted Omar Kanji, Partner at crypto VC firm Dragonfly.

Vertical integration: By acquiring MIAXdx and its CFTC-regulated entities, Robinhood can bring the infrastructure in-house, remove Kalshi’s fee layer, and design its own economics for event contracts. The company expects this will “deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers,” according to JB Mackenzie, VP and General Manager of Futures and International.

Market response: Investors reacted positively. Robinhood’s stock has gained 14% since the deal was announced, effectively adding the equivalent of Kalshi’s $11 billion valuation to its own market capitalization.

Kalshi’s next move: Losing Robinhood, which accounted for 57% of Kalshi’s trading volume last month, is a major setback for the startup. But a new partner is emerging: according to The Information, Coinbase is preparing to launch its own prediction market product powered by Kalshi at its “Coinbase System Update” event on December 17.

What’s next: Robinhood’s new trading venue is slated to begin operations in 2026, and will launch with day-one liquidity support from Susquehanna, the global market maker that is already a major liquidity provider on Kalshi.

Claude Donzé is Principal and Consumer Lead at Greenfield Capital, a leading European crypto VC firm with investments in companies such as Near, 1Inch and Arweave.

Prediction markets are entering a new stage of institutionalization as major players like Robinhood step in. What began as a niche experiment is becoming a distinct asset class with its own market structure. The collaboration of global market makers like Susquehanna and crypto-native players such as Galaxy shows that liquidity is professionalizing and the same actors who shape traditional markets are now active here.

But even with Robinhood’s strength, the market will not converge on a single winner. The category is large enough for multiple players, and the differentiation paths are clear. One is the social layer, with prediction markets already behaving like social products through comment activity, distinct communities and conversations on platforms like X. Another is the information layer, with Polymarket positioning itself as a real-time news and truth source. And over time, more layers are likely to emerge as the market expands.

TOKENIZED EQUITY

Centrifuge and AI Startup Caesar Announce Equity Tokenization

Onchain equity: Last week, AI startup Caesar announced plans to become one of the first private companies to natively issue onchain equity. The issuance is slated for Q1 2026 and will leverage the SEC-registered transfer agent and blockchain infrastructure of tokenization platform Centrifuge.

Why it matters: Tokenized equities have been one of this year’s standout themes. In September, Galaxy became one of the first publicly traded companies to put its own equity onchain, while fintech players like Kraken, Robinhood, and Ondo drew attention by launching tokenized versions of U.S. stocks such as Nvidia and Tesla. But unlike Galaxy’s issuance, nearly all tokenized stocks circulating today are only synthetic wrappers.

• “Many so-called onchain equities in the market aren’t equity at all. They’re derivatives that only give you price exposure to an underlying asset. You don’t have voting rights, you don’t have dividend rights, and you have no real claim against the issuer if something goes wrong. What we’re doing here is entirely different. Caesar is issuing actual shares of a U.S. company in tokenized form, with full investor rights and full legal protections,“ Eli Cohen, Chief Legal Officer at Centrifuge Labs, told us in our interview.

A new frontier: After facilitating more than $2 billion in tokenized assets across institutional funds and credit strategies with partners like Janus Henderson and S&P Global, this move also marks Centrifuge’s expansion beyond asset management into corporate finance.

Interview: In our conversation with Cohen and Mark McKenzie, founder of Caesar, we explored why the startup chose to issue its equity onchain and what pieces of infrastructure still need to be built before tokenized securities can go mainstream.

On why Caesar is tokenizing its equity:

On the key benefits onchain equity brings for companies:

On why tokenized equities are picking up speed now:

On the current state of infrastructure and what still needs to be built:

On the growth opportunity behind onchain equities:

SpaceComputer | $10 million | Seed : Distributed satellite network that provides secure confidential computation for blockchains.

On Tuesday, French startup Spiko announced the launch of a GBP-backed tokenized money market fund. It’s the company’s third fund, following its euro-denominated vehicle (EUTBL), with more than €370 million in TVL the largest of its kind, and its USD fund, which has surpassed $155 million.

We spoke with CEO and co-founder Paul-Adrien Hyppolite about why the pound was the logical next step and how demand for this type of product is shaping up.

Disclaimer: The information provided in the Crypto Briefing by Blockstories does not constitute investment advice. Accordingly, we assume no liability for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein.