Merrill Lynch bärisch zu Fannie Mae

Auszug aus einem Merrill Lynch Researchreport von heute :

"Concerns over stability of GSEs has encouraged the Treasury to take steps to ensure access to capital. Credit still likely to drive longer-term capital needs, suggesting further dilutive steps likely. We are reducing our price objective for FNM to $9 from $22, as we expect rising credit losses to continue to weigh on shares. We anticipate roughly $31 in losses per share, leading to further capital issuance and a trough BV of about $9 per share. We are reducing our FRE price objective to $7 from $20, again due to rising loss expectations and a lower forecast BV estimate of about $7. We have also revised our estimates downward for both companies on the weakening credit outlook. We think investors will continue to discount the shares of FNM and FRE until a visible improvement in the housing market and broader economy suggest improving fundamentals.

Last week’s share price action in Fannie Mae (FNM; C-3-8; $10.25) and Freddie Mac (FRE; C-3-8; $7.75) raised fears of a liquidity crisis that is ringing alarm bells within financial markets, as actions taken by the Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank of New York seem to confirm market concerns. With shares down about 45% in a week, the government actions ensuring funding access lead us to conclude there is a growing possibility that more direct intervention is necessary to support the two largest mortgage participants. The mere possibility of direct investments in FNM and FRE suggests further caution, in our view, as the pieces are falling into place for institutional support at possible shareholder expense. "